- One of the biggest threat to the markets is the 2020 election and the potential for a progressive overhaul of the U.S. economy, J.P. Morgan’s private bank told clients.
- “Warren’s tax increase proposals are roughly 2.5 times the level of FDR’s tax increases that took place during the Great Depression, a time when US unemployment reached 22%,” the report stated.
- An uptick in inflation is another major risk to the market in 2020, J.P. Morgan said.
J.P. Morgan’s private bank, which manages $2.2 trillion for wealthy clients, said a presidential victory from a radical leftist candidate is among the biggest threats to their money in 2020.
The firm also warned about a possible inflation scare in its annual outlook report to clients.
With left-winged Democratic presidential candidates like Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Sen. Bernie Sanders as front-runners in the national primary polls, J.P. Morgan sees a ban on stock buybacks, increased corporate tax rates, collective bargaining and a break-up of big tech as distinct possibilities.
“A progressive overhaul of the U.S. economy after the election” would be among the biggest perils, wrote Michael Cembalest, chairman of market and investment strategy for J.P. Morgan Asset Management, in the report.
President Donald Trump’s growth strategy fueled by tax cuts and deregulation has lead the stock market to an all-time high, with returns well above the average U.S. president three years into their terms. The S&P 500 had its best run in six years, gaining nearly 30% in 2019. However, Trump was impeached by the House of Representatives in December for abuse of power and obstruction on Congress regarding Trump’s dealings with Ukraine, which could hurt his reputation at the polls, J.P. Morgan noted.