Michael Bloomberg is seen as Democrat most likely to beat Trump if nominated, according to betting market data

Michael Bloomberg is seen as Democrat most likely to beat Trump if nominated, according to betting market data
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  • Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg is seen as the Democrat most likely to defeat President Donald Trump if nominated, according to an analysis of online betting market data by researchers at Standard Chartered Bank.
  • Larry Sabato, a top elections analyst and director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, said he welcomed the betting markets analysis, but cautioned that elections can be unpredictable.
  • Bloomberg is far from the front of the Democratic primary field in national and state polling, though he has ascended rapidly in recent weeks in large part as a result of his unprecedented spending.

Former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg is seen as the Democrat most likely to defeat President Donald Trump if nominated, according to an analysis of online betting market data by researchers at Standard Chartered Bank.

But Bloomberg, who has spent hundreds of millions of dollars on his nascent bid for the presidency, still only has a 10% chance of winning the primary, according to researchers Steve Englander and Geoff Kendrick, who published their findings in a note on Tuesday.

Bloomberg is far from the front of the Democratic primary field in national and state polling, though he has ascended rapidly in recent weeks in large part as a result of his unprecedented spending. Bloomberg has spent more than $200 million on his campaign so far and has said he may spend up to $1 billion to defeat Trump even if he is not the nominee.

The research note from U.K.-based Standard Chartered attempts to explain the strength of the stock market despite polling that shows that Democrats are likely to defeat Trump in November’s election. Analysts have speculated that financial markets could plunge if one of the race’s progressives is elected, though the major U.S. indexes have continued to set records.

Englander, in an interview, said that the standard answer for why the stock market isn’t reacting to much of the volatility of the 2020 race is that the election is “too far away and too hard to hedge.”

Source: CNBC

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