In an interview with CBS’ Face The Nation, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank president Neel Kashkari made a disturbing comment about how the job market may be disrupted. Kashkari said about the sudden surge of the Delta variant, “It’s creating a bunch of caution.” His statement may seem innocuous, but it has serious repercussions.
Uncertainty about the future is an anathema to job growth. When companies are afraid of what will happen next, they tend to hold off on making decisions. With the possible threat of some sort of shutdown, executives will hold off on hiring and possibly downsize, in an effort to cut costs in case things turn ugly. “Right now, we have seven to nine million Americans who are still out of work that we need to get back into the job market,” said Kashkari.
It makes sense that companies would slow-walk the interview process. Executive management at most companies have already prepared their back-to-work plans. Many have instituted hybrid models, in which employees will go into the office two or three days a week and spend the rest working remotely. Now, they have to revisit this program, especially as the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) changed its stance on masks, recommending that some fully vaccinated people wear masks indoors—if they live in locations with high levels of cases.
With this new announcement, companies will be forced to make tough decisions: take a wait-and-see approach, while continuing with their plans to get people back into an office setting, or putting it on hold until there is greater clarity of the virus.
Weighed down with rethinking their plans, figuring out how to navigate the CDC’s recommendations and instituting vaccination policies will consume time and energy. Bringing aboard new hires at this time won’t be front and center on their things-to-do list. The first priority is determining what to do with their current employees.
There will be interviews taking place, but it will go tortiously slow. A few must-need jobs will be filled. All others could be temporarily sidelined. People who currently hold jobs will place their searches on hold. They won’t want to be the last one hired and first fired, if the virus takes a turn for the worst. There is too much on the plate of managers who are engaged with juggling their hybrid, remote, vaccine and mask candidates and don’t have the bandwidth to conduct interviews. Even if they were to hire a person, they’d have to start working remotely, which isn’t ideal for many people.
In a company blog post, Google and Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai laid out his revised return-to-work plans with a call for vaccinations, in light of the recent surge of the Delta variant. Pichai said, “We are extending our global voluntary work-from-home policy through October 18.” He added, “Getting vaccinated is one of the most important ways to keep ourselves and our communities healthy in the months ahead.”
In addition to the headaches of management, the Federal Reserve Bank president offered reasons as to why people don’t want to go back to work. Kashkari said about the mindset of those in between roles, “They’ve been nervous about [Covid-19], because of childcare issues, because of these enhanced unemployment benefits.”
Initially, Kashkari said he was “very optimistic” and believed that “the fall would be a very strong labor market with many of those Americans coming back to work.” He added, “But if people are nervous about the Delta variant, that could slow some of that labor market recovery and, therefore, be a drag on our economic recovery. So the sooner we can get people vaccinated, the sooner we can get Delta under control, the better off our economy is going to be.”
The uncertainty may cause companies to think twice about their return-to-the-office plans. If this strain spreads, like it’s doing in other countries, workers would protest over being required to commute back to work. Corporations would be open to liabilities for pushing people to possibly endanger themselves.
Caution, due to uncertainty, rules the day. You can’t really blame the companies or workers. Both sides would rather take the conservative and safe approach. Major corporations would prefer to keep their buildings closed, so as not to risk their employees contracting the new Delta variant strain. They will fear potential lawsuits, if people are ordered to return to the office and get sick. Employees feel the paycheck isn’t worth the health risk. They’ll take their chances being fired before subjecting themselves to the virus.
The path of least resistance is to have people work at home. The staff will be relieved and appreciative. Executive management may not be too pleased, but they recognize it would be a revolt and mass exodus if they push too hard to make people return to an office setting.
The challenge is: when can we declare victory over the virus? After the Delta variant, will we go through the entire Greek alphabet? It may turn out that we’ll have to live with this, as we contend with cancer and other dangers.
In addition to Google, Twitter reported that it closed its San Francisco and New York offices due to the recent increase in Covid-19 cases. In a company statement, Twitter said, “After careful consideration of the CDC’s updated guidelines, and in light of current conditions, Twitter has made the decision to close our opened offices in New York and San Francisco, as well as pause future office reopenings, effective immediately.” The company will monitor the situation.
Apple was one of the few tech companies to be reluctant to fully embrace remote work—much to the chagrin of some of its employees. The tech giant initially wanted its staff back to the office at least three days a week by early September. Now, the deadline has been pushed back to October, at the earliest. Workers will be told at least a month before when they’ll have to return to an office setting.
Tech giant Facebook said it will now require U.S. workers returning to its offices to be vaccinated. Lori Goler, vice president of people at Facebook, said in a statement, “As our offices reopen, we will be requiring anyone coming to work at any of our U.S. campuses to be vaccinated.” Goler added, “How we implement this policy will depend on local conditions and regulations.”
Here is what some people have been saying in response to a Wall Street Journal and other articles posted on LinkedIn concerning the sudden surge in the new variant, and what they think about going back to an office setting.
R.K.: “I agree that nobody should be forced to return to an office during a pandemic.”
C.P.: “The pandemic is far from over. Why would anyone entertain going back to the office? In fact, Delta is more contagious than the original strain. We shouldn’t be talking about returning to offices until 2022, and even that depends on what strain is active then.”
J.M.: “Why would anyone, who has been working remotely, want to return to the office where their risk for [Covid-19] is high and they have to wear a mask all day? The risk outweighs the reward.”
E.J.: “This article should be titled ‘As Misinformation Rages, Anti-Vaccination Employees Make Co-Workers Feel on Edge About Returning to the Office.’ I’m content to go to work when I trust that others have taken the necessary steps to protect themselves. Businesses that don’t have proper safety measures in place will have a hard time bringing employees back under one roof.”
C.C.: “I do not see how returning to the office now is possibly more safe than it was three or five months ago. Maybe it was safer before the presence of the variant, but not anymore.”
A.B.: “If you are forcing people to go into the office during the Delta spread, you will lose many people to competitors. If it is needed for people to be in a couple days a week, at least just keep this to that. Do not go to full capacity and risk lives. You can still get that face time with one to two days a week.
Source: Forbes
